Jul 27, 2011

Coffee Update July 27th 2011- Cold fronts didn´t threaten coffee belt so far , noone in sight neither.

 Coffee Update July 27th 2011- Cold fronts didn´t threaten the coffee belt so far , noone in sight neither.
Comments: Without any weather treath , the path of least resistance is downwards.All technical indicators support this move down.A close under 2.38 (KCU1) will confirm the weakness , indicating a test of 2.25 +-.

Jul 14, 2011

Coffee update july 14th -2011 Seemly bearish , but bears could be obliged to hibernate for a while

Daily: 2011 July 14th
After holding the fibo 38,2 retracement support , the recent price movement start to look more like a part
of a complex , and may be long  3 waves ABC correction . The test of 285 resistance still very possible to complete B wave .Without any weather event after a possible test of 285 , next move should be straight down to 240 /220 to complete the C wave.

: 2011 June 29th
After the short term support being confirmed by a hammer candle followed by a strong upside reversal ,
next upside target should be close to 275/285 (previous supports and not yet tested resistances).

Jul 7, 2011

Coffee Update July 7th 2011- Frost probability should become higher for next years!

Coffee prices may be overvalued when looked  from a purely fundamental point of view, this is what futures prices are supposed to anticipate . Perhaps this year unusual freezing winter in brazilian southern regions  has helped this bullish overshooting . If i had to speculate on any frost probability for next years , i would take the long side , simply because i believe on the major influence of the solar cycles on winter intensity in intertropical zones. That cycle has reached its peak a couple of years ago and has since then turned down .
So far we have been right both on the way down as well on the way back up.
In the actual scenario of greed and fear , volatility will stay  strong in the same way that resistances and supports will be weak.
The odds , the seasonality and the facts still favor a test of , at least (kcu1) 275 resistance , if not 285, before next leg down !
But i still dont see any evidence that the previous uptrend line has not been broken for real .
Without any weather surprise , i will still see the prices testing the 225 support at the end of winter in Brazil or if you prefer at the end of the harvest.