Coffee Update: October 20, 2011

Coffee Update: October 20, 2011

Elliott waves counting are becoming clearer, showing at each new chart bar , that we may just be in a “slow , wide and complex” bull market corrective wave 4.
As long as the 2.00 level is respected on a weekly closing basis , this scenario can still be considered as a strong possibility.

Daily/Weekly/Monthly : So far the market has performed accordingly to a “Zig-Zag” (5-3-5) bear correction of the last Bull Run, the only doubt right now is :
a) if the “B” wave of the correction has been completed at 2.9085(KCZ1) and the correction has ended with the 2.1980 low , completing the “C” wave .

b) or if we can still test the resistance line of the down trend channel around 2.60 before a new downside leg completes the correction with one more leg down to test the 2.1980 low or even the 2.00 support ,completing wave C)

On the pure technical/graphical side, if the market is able to post a weekly close over 239.55 this Friday , the odds will favor a quick challenge of last recent resistances at 2.4050/2.4225 (last year´s close and high) , then if the gap at 2.5100/2.5135 is closed and convincingly left behind , the odds will favor the bet on the end of the downside correction at the 2.1980 (KCZ1) low.