Coffee Update July 7th 2011- Frost probability should become higher for next years!

Coffee prices may be overvalued when looked  from a purely fundamental point of view, this is what futures prices are supposed to anticipate . Perhaps this year unusual freezing winter in brazilian southern regions  has helped this bullish overshooting . If i had to speculate on any frost probability for next years , i would take the long side , simply because i believe on the major influence of the solar cycles on winter intensity in intertropical zones. That cycle has reached its peak a couple of years ago and has since then turned down .
So far we have been right both on the way down as well on the way back up.
In the actual scenario of greed and fear , volatility will stay  strong in the same way that resistances and supports will be weak.
The odds , the seasonality and the facts still favor a test of , at least (kcu1) 275 resistance , if not 285, before next leg down !
But i still dont see any evidence that the previous uptrend line has not been broken for real .
Without any weather surprise , i will still see the prices testing the 225 support at the end of winter in Brazil or if you prefer at the end of the harvest.
Rgds
Alvaro