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Sep 12, 2011

US $ dollar index 09/12/2011.Are we starting a long term upside reversal??

Where can you invest your assets nowadays??

1-)If you want to put it in the most stable (in US dollar terms) , supposedly solid , fundamentally reliable , although valued with a political bias , you should first of all , discover where to find the willingly, liquid and “reliable” sellers to sell what you want to buy , also defy their mood and intentions to sell it to you. Despite possibly being this task an impossible intention ,because totalitarian states don’t allow ,nor encourage competitors to threaten their politically controlled central banks intentions and goals that allow them to define the nominal quotations of their national currency.
So don’t loose your energy and talent in trying to build big long positions in Chinese Yuan currency.

2-)If Swiss bankers are not anymore concerned in guaranteeing your financial assets property ,and are becoming each day more pressured to cooperate with the effort of the Swiss central  bank to defend the overvaluation of their currency and are unashamed in charging negative interest rates in an over valuated currency .
So, don’t loose your dignity and good mood in buying expensive Swiss Francs to store in a Swiss Bank safe box.

3)-If you had a chance to have , at least, high school education and you have attended the essential math class , you will not fell comfortable in putting your "nest eggs" in a country currency with a national sovereign debt somewhere around 200% of its GDP.
So, only invest in yens if you want to visit your banker in Japan to mourn the last Tsunami victims, may be you can get an earthquake experience as a bonus!

4-)If you are a good money manager , you should be loaded with commodities exporting dependent "emerging countries" currencies , all over valuated !
So , follow your text books and don’t add risk to a winning , although each day more risky  position.

5-)If you like the color and the shinning of gold but feel uncomfortable for having lost  the last ,long and wild, uptrend , still keep admiring the shine of the metal , but don’t buy a heavy gold collar neither a container of gold bars at the recent prices , simply because gold prices are priced in US dollars and when dollar currency is
threatened , although not yet discredited , as a  global exchange reference for commercial trades , the nominal price of gold go inversely up. And last but not least , remember that "strong currencies reserves” means GOLD in USA central bank. Remember the word "Fort Knox" ???? 9.000 MT of gold are stored there just for fun ......worth at current gold prices 1/4 to 1/3 of  USA sovereign debt and roughly a bit less than the sum of all European countries gold reserves , 10 times China reserves , 8 times Russian reserves.
So, from now on , buy diamonds instead of gold to your wife /girlfriend.


6-)If you don’t want to help anticipate the real state asset bubble burst in strong currency , commodities exporting dependent emerging markets , you will not invest in a real state property just to have a distant Holliday vacation house , airline tickets are cheap and luxury hotels are kind off priced in London values, temporarily , because of local currency overvaluations.
So, don’t invest in a future headache possibility.

BOTTON LINE : The long , aged and unquestionable US dollar bear market seen to have reached its final and definitive bottom!

SO START BUYING DOLLAR CURRENCY AND KEEP IT ANYWHERE OTHER THEN US SOVEREING DEBT. IF YOU ARE FINANCIALLY AGRESSIVE YOU COULD EVEN INVEST YOUR DOLLARS IN AMERICAN REAL STATE PROPERTIES AND ,WHY NOT, IN INFRAESTRUCTURE RELATED COMPANIES STOCKS.


After important support being tested , strong upside reversal . Ma´s much easier to be broken this time!

 After a strong upside reversal , resistances are ahead , but the strong ones are already behind!


Stocks are very cheap historicaly , in relation  to gold prices. This is not sustainable for much more time , since the world economy depends on the health of American economy!


 Seens very though task for Gold be more valuable when priced in Crude oil prices!
 The best and more consistent trend in last 30 years , the nest of the crises! Now supported by Uncle Sam . If and when it bursts , the US dollar will jump the bumps wildely.
 VIX are nervous , but still under control , no risk avertion situations in near sight.

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